Hi Cyril and all,

This was a facinating story for a fellow Meteorologist.
Interesting that numerical weather prediction was contemplated that
long ago. Who would have thought where it would go today. It was
discovered early on that there were many more calculations than
could possibly be done by hand on a slide rule, or even by people
on calculating machines. Parallel processing is very important
in numerical weather prediction. The estimate of 64,000 to
204,800 calculations to predict the the global atmosphere turned
out to be very low. There are many models around now around the
world. In the U.S., the national center runs models out to 16 days
4 times per day. Each time requires a super computer running at
several teraflops a couple of hours to run each run. I think we'd
all burn up our slide rules similar to calculations that show the
temperature Santa Clause would obtain if he really reached very
house in the world in one night :)

Regards,
Miles Schumacher

--- In sliderule@yahoogroups.com, Cyril Catt <cscatt@h...> wrote:
> The 22 January 2005 Australian edition of New Scientist, No2483, pp
> 48-49 carries an article " The Slide Rule Orchestra" about the work
of
> British meteorologist Lewis Fry Richardson 1881-1953. Before WW I he
> envisaged a large room crowded with 'calculators', each armed with a
> slide rule and adding machine, and each working on differential
> equations for weather data in separate map grid cells. His idea was
to
> develop equations which could predict the weather. As a Quaker, he
> volunteered for ambulance duty in WWI, and worked on his equations
when
> off duty. But the manuscript was lost during a battle. After the war
he
> repeated the work and published it in 1922 as "Weather Prediction by
> the Numerical Process", which was seminal enough to warrant a
reprint
> in 1965.
>
> He had returned to his job with the UK Meteorological Office, but
when
> a government shuffle placed it under the control of the Air
Ministry,
> his pacifist feelings led him to resign. This was a major loss to
> meteorology.
>
> Thereafter, until his death he applied his statistical abilities to
> study the causes and prevention of war. He published "Mathematical
> Psychology of War" in 1919, and gained a degree in Psychology in
1929.
> A major major work was published posthumously as "Statistics of
Deadly
> Quarrels", edited by Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau (1960, The
Boxwood
> Press, Pittsburgh; Quadrangle Books, Chicago; and Stevens & Sons,
> London).
>
> Richardson estimated that it would need 64,000 'calculators' for his
> 'orchestra' to predict the global weather, although others estimated
at
> least 204,800 would be needed to just keep up with incoming data.
>
> Cyril Catt